A cautious Fed decides to throw down the halt to interest rate increases. Markets rejoiced, with gains across materials, industrials and commodities guided the Dow ($DJIA) higher. Though dovish the Fed may be in March, volatility looks good to go till June as global risks could short-circuit recovery.
Here are your TGIF reads:
Delayed but not Derailed: Prior to the Fed announcement, Binyamin Appelbaum evaluates the internal struggle for caution and risk appetite against the growth of the domestic economy. The standard of control for price inflation is matched with sluggish labour growth indicators and whether Yellen’s struggle to reach an (internal) consensus to counter unstable financial market conditions.
The Fed Isn’t Stealing Investors’ Candy: Commentary from Nir Kaissar (@NirKaissar) cuts to the chase, evaluating the Fed’s clumsy attempt to maintain equity risk premiums at the expense of historical premiums and annual returns data. What this means? Simply enough, the motivator for higher ER premiums were guided by lower valuations than interest rates – with stronger predictive power for stocks stand to hold investors in good stead.
Fed’s Credibility Conundrum: Paul Vigna draws a good comparison to “policy normalisation” with “being handcuffed without a safeword (read: data).” Guided by data, but not – Vigna’s piece assesses the Fed’s struggle towards driving monetary policy and economic growth.
The Yellen Fed Risks Faustian Pact With Inflation: Succinct observations from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (@AmbroseEP) note the Fed’s struggle in dealing with leverage with asymmetric risks threatening the financial system. A must read, he draws from John Williams and Athanasios Orphanides’s paper to unify his reasonings on disjointed policy and observations on the actual state of the market to warn of the stimulus’ reaching its rope.
To round it off, a throwback to #MarketMonday:
Oil Flirts With New Highs: Yoel Minkoff evaluates oil’s 5th straight week of gains, as the benign interest rate environment and hopes for OpEx reaching a deal to freeze output raise.